Urea For Rising Said Worry, Ammonium Chloride Goods Tight But Low-key

The high price of urea is not uncommon, but recently the transaction price of urea has eased slightly. Due to the influence of limited supply of natural gas as raw material, limited production by environmental protection and limited electricity supply locally, the overall operation of urea is operating at a low level. In order to reverse the conflict of the lower reaches with the high price, in order to maintain the misery of rising prices and saying that the load is low, it seems to be more or less a matter of giving new words and saying that the meaning of sorrow is strong; for example, there are few urea enterprises operating in the southwest, and the urea enterprises in Shanxi have strict environmental protection and production restriction, the mainstream ex-factory price is about 1,740 Yuan/ton, while the receiving price of urea for the Shandong Linyi compound fertilizer enterprises, where industrial demand has turned weak, is 1,830-1,840 Yuan/ton. Therefore, it seems that the price of urea may be bid up, but the drop will not be too large, however, urea at this stage is better for supporting ammonium chloride.

At present, the domestic ammonium chloride market is running smoothly, and all factories need to execute their orders, among which some enterprises need to control receiving orders or temporarily not receiving orders, and the industry is more cautious and optimistic; now east China's main producer of wet ammonium quoted prices of 440-460 Yuan/ton, at the high end of 500 Yuan/ton, the mainstream price of dry ammonium leaves the factory at about 560 Yuan/ton, the start-up of ammonium chloride enterprises in the southwest part of the gas head slightly decreased, coupled with a slight adjustment in the production center of some enterprises, the local supply of ammonium chloride is relatively tight, some dry supply of ammonium to Guangdong and Yunnan and Guizhou areas of the arrival quotation in about 700 Yuan/ton, then the trend of ammonium chloride from the following points to consider.

First of all, the start-up of soda enterprises around 70% wandering, short-term start-up no significant reduction or increase. According to the statistics of the China Fertilizer Network, the overall industry operating rate of domestic soda enterprises is about 68.4% , the total daily output is about 35,800 tons, the inventory of ammonium chloride is low, but the inventory of soda remains high, and the price of local soda has recently bottomed out, enterprises have a small increase in the will or signs, or to speed up stability, and enterprises from the cost consideration, which means that most of the start-up of normal circumstances will not be reduced; In addition, except for the limited natural gas supply and the tilt of the production center to liquid ammonia in some ammonium chloride gas enterprises in southwest China, which led to a slight decrease in the start-up of the production, the high-pressure production limit for environmental protection in Henan Province, and the temporary overhaul of a factory in Tianjin, other areas of ammonium chloride enterprises are normal start-up.

Secondly ammonium chloride enterprises to send orders more adequate, but the new single take goods flat. According to the feedback from the factories, there are sufficient order waiting for delivery, the less can be executed until the end of the month, the more can be near the Spring Festival, but the downstream compound fertilizer enterprises or the extruding granular ammonium chloride enterprises have a slightly lower start-up rate, and there are sufficient reserves of ammonium chloride in the earlier stage, at present, the purchase of ammonium chloride on demand, in addition, with the approach of the Spring Festival, some small and medium-sized compound fertilizer enterprises and extruded granular ammonium chloride enterprises will reduce production or stop production trend, then the purchase of ammonium chloride will be reduced; This year the ammonium chloride market without insurance policy protection, so traders of ammonium chloride to maintain prudent operation, more appropriate inventory to be assured, and then on demand.

However, even if the new demand for ammonium chloride has weakened, the local demand for ammonium chloride has increased in total, that is, the new production capacity of tower compound fertilizer in the northeast, given the high price of urea, it is not uncommon to purchase ammonium chloride instead of some urea, and in the long run, under the trend of high environmental protection pressure and backward production capacity, if some capacity of individual ammonium chloride enterprises is withdrawn from the market as scheduled, supply of ammonium chloride will be reduced in the future.

Once again high urea price consolidation, in the short term will still be limited gas, electricity, environmental factors such as the impact of low production, prices continue to be high, then the support of ammonium chloride is more adequate. Finally, in a comprehensive view, the production of ammonium chloride enterprises will not be significantly increased due to environmental protection, limited natural gas supply and adjustment of local production centers. In addition, ammonium chloride enterprises are more fully prepared and the market for ammonium chloride is developing well, but from the early Spring Festival time node and the downstream of the adequate stock, ammonium chloride will be lower-key, in the positive and negative impact of staggered, ammonium chloride market stability is expected to be the main, good to expect, the enterprise more to implement the invoice.