The World Trade Organization (WTO) released the latest issue of the "Barometer of Trade in Goods" on May 28, showing that global trade in goods will continue to recover in 2021 after a short and sharp drop in the second quarter of last year due to the new crown pneumonia epidemic.
It is understood that the "Barometer of Trade in Goods" regularly released by the WTO has been regarded as a comprehensive leading indicator of global trade. The current barometer reading of this period is 109.7, which is nearly 10 points higher than the benchmark value of 100 and an increase of 21.6 points year-on-year. This reading reflects the strong recovery of global trade in goods under the epidemic situation, and indirectly reflects the depth of the impact of the epidemic on global trade in goods last year.
In the most recent month, all sub-indices of the barometer indicators in this period are above the trend level and show an upward trend, highlighting the widespread recovery of global trade in goods and the accelerated pace of trade expansion. Among the sub-indices, export orders (114.8), air freight (111.1) and electronic components (115.2) led the way. Their indexes are highly consistent with the recent growth forecast of global trade in goods; given that consumer confidence is closely related to the sales of durable goods, The strong indexes of automotive products (105.5) and agricultural raw materials (105.4) reflect improved consumer confidence. The strong performance of the container shipping industry (106.7) was particularly impressive, showing that global shipping remained in good condition during the epidemic.
The latest issue of the "Barometer of Trade in Goods" is basically consistent with the global trade forecast released by the WTO on March 31.
In the second quarter of 2020, when the blockade restrictions were fully implemented, the volume of trade in goods fell by 15.5% year-on-year, but by the fourth quarter, trade in goods had exceeded the level of the same period in 2019. Although the quarterly trade volume statistics for the first and second quarters of 2021 have not yet been released, the year-on-year growth is expected to be very strong, partly due to the recent overall strengthening of global trade and the excessive decline in global trade last year due to the impact of the epidemic. starting point.
What needs to be pointed out is that factors such as regional differences, continued weakness in service trade, and the lagging time for vaccination in low-income countries have harmed the relatively positive short-term global trade prospects. The new crown pneumonia epidemic is continuing to pose a threat to the prospects of global trade, and a new wave of epidemics that may emerge may disrupt the recovery process of global trade.