Strategic Grains Raises EU Wheat Production Forecast, But Lowers Export Target

Strategic Grains released its monthly report for September, raising production estimates for winter crops such as wheat and barley.

The report shows that 2022 EU soft wheat production is expected to be 124.1 million tons, up from the previous month's forecast of 123.3 million tons, but still 4.4 percent below the previous year.

Despite the upward revision in production, Strategic Grains lowered its forecast for EU soft wheat exports in 2022/23 (July-June) to 28.7 million tons, down from the August forecast of 29 million tons and in line with 2021/22.

EU wheat exports were strong early in the year as there was little competition from the Black Sea at the time. But as Russia's bumper wheat harvest hits the market and Ukraine gradually resumes Black Sea exports from August, EU wheat will face more intense competitive pressure from the Black Sea.

Strategic Grains also expects EU barley production in 2022 to be 51 million tons, up from the August forecast of 50 million tons, but still 1.5% lower than last year.