Rising Fertilizer Prices May Threaten Global Rice Supply

In India, Vietnam and the Philippines, the price of various types of fertilizers used for rice cultivation has risen two to three times in the past year, according to the Vietnam Agriculture Newspaper on April 20, 2022. To save planting costs, rice farmers have to be "careful" in the use of fertilizers, and the reduction in fertilizer use means a decrease in rice planting area and yield. Food experts believe that rice, an important food crop that feeds half of the world's population, is experiencing a planting crisis, and if fertilizer prices are not controlled, a global food crisis may be triggered. 

According to the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), global rice production may fall by 10 percent in the next harvest season, which would result in a 36 million ton rice supply gap, equivalent to 500 million people without a source of food. According to IRRI experts, this is a very conservative forecast, and if the Russian-Ukrainian conflict continues, the consequences could be even more severe. 

The report said rice farmers are now in a "particularly vulnerable" situation. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has pushed up the international market price of wheat and corn, but rice prices have remained relatively stable and even declined due to sufficient production. This means that rice farmers have increased their planting inputs, but have not gained real profit growth.