Global Economic And Trade Friction Is In A New Trend Under The Aggravation Of Competition Among Big Powers

According to Zhang Yuejiao, the main findings of the 2020 annual report involve four aspects:

First, the global economic and trade friction situation is severe, and the competition conflict of big countries is expanding. In 2020, the global economic and trade friction index is at a high level in 9 months in 12 months, and the overall trend is fluctuating and rising. From the perspective of the country (region), the competition of big powers is expanding. In 2020, India and the United States have 9 months, the UK and the EU have 8 months, Brazil has seven months of high global economic and trade friction index; Argentina, Turkey, Russia, China, Indonesia and Canada have been in the middle and high in most months; Saudi Arabia, Australia, Thailand, Vietnam, Japan, Mexico, Malaysia The global economic and trade friction index of nine countries in South Africa and South Korea was at a low level in most months.

Second, the adoption of five types of measures involved in the global economic and trade friction index conforms to the basic rules of trade measures, but presents a new trend. The import and export restrictions are affected by the superposition of the epidemic situation and the economic and trade friction between China and the United States, showing a clear trend of intensified conflicts. In 2020, the index of import and export restrictions is at a high level for 10 months, the highest in March (475); the index is in the middle of one month, 65; only one month is at a low level. The restrictive measures of import and export showed a trend of shock from March to June. From the perspective of product coverage, in 2020, the import and export restrictions issued by 20 countries (regions) involve 69 two customs codes, accounting for 70.4% of the total 98 two customs codes.

Trade relief measures are still frequently used tools in major countries, many of which extend directly to the fields of intellectual property investigation and export control. In 2020, the index of trade relief measures is at a high level for 7 months; it is in the middle position for 3 months; it is only 2 months low, indicating that the intensity of economic and trade friction is relatively high. From the perspective of the new filing, the trade relief survey launched by the United States, India and Canada ranks the top three in 20 countries (regions) in 2020.

Import and export tariff measures are the measures adopted by major countries with more caution. In 2020, the import and export tariff measure index was at a low level for 8 months; it was at a high level for one month; and it was in the middle for three months. The number of import and export tariff measures issued by developing countries accounted for 81.2%, mainly issued by Brazil, Turkey, Argentina and India.

Technical trade measures are "covert", and the influence on economic and trade should be paid attention to. In 2020, the index of technical trade measures was in the middle most of the months. Compared with other measures, the conflicts of economic and trade friction are relatively small. However, in terms of quantity, in 2020, the most technical trade measures, accounting for 47.4%, of the five measures issued by 20 countries (regions). Because of its more concealment, less easy to supervise and unpredictable, technical trade measures have become the common measure tools in major countries (regions). But at the same time, it should be seen that technical trade measures reflect the compliance of the issuing countries with transparency obligations, so comprehensive consideration is needed.

In other restrictive measures, "national security" features prominent, developed countries (regions) are the "main force" of these measures. In 2020, among 1179 other restrictive measures issued by 20 countries (regions), subsidies and other forms of support measures accounted for 75.9% of the total number of other restrictive measures, reflecting the impact of the epidemic. Major countries have issued subsidies and support measures to support their own industries and enterprises. The top five countries (regions) that publish other restrictive measures are developed countries (regions), respectively, the United States, the EU, the United Kingdom, Canada and Australia.

Third, measures issued by 20 countries (regions) cover a wide range of products. The relevant measures cover almost all the two digit code products in Chapter 98 of 22 categories determined by the international customs Council. The industries affected by the greater impact include motor, electrical equipment and their parts, organic chemicals, mechanical equipment, etc. The relevant measures involve a wide range of products, accounting for 99.0% of all 98 two digit customs codes.

Fourth, WTO dispute settlement mechanism is still the most active international dispute settlement mechanism in the world, and the participation of the United States, EU, China and India is relatively high. Up to now, a total of 110 members have been actively involved as parties to the dispute or as third parties.

In addition, the WTO reform has become the focus of the game between the United States, the EU and China. The main WTO members have put forward the proposals for the reform of WTO. Dai Qi, the new US trade representative, mentioned the issue of WTO reform in his first discussion with Britain, the European Union, Canada, Japan and South Korea.

The reporter learned that the "global economic and trade friction index" is a trend monitoring index prepared by the Legal Advisory Committee of the Council for the promotion of international trade and economic and trade. Through quantitative index and qualitative analysis, the purpose is to reflect the main trend of global economic and trade friction comprehensively and reasonably and find new risk points.

In 2021, the Legal Advisory Committee of China Council for the promotion of international trade and trade will regularly issue the monthly report on the global economic and trade friction index, strengthen the tracking and Research on the economic and trade measures of major countries (regions), provide risk warning for possible economic and trade friction and conflicts through index research trends, strengthen the analysis of the specific affected industries, maintain the industrial safety and economic security of China, and constantly keep on studying the economic and trade measures of major countries (regions) Improve the service ability of risk insight and trend research and judgment, and provide risk warning and decision support for the government and enterprises.