China's Soybean Imports Are Expected To Decline in 2021/2022

Customs data show that China imported 7.166 million tons of soybeans in August 2022, down 9.1% from 7.883 million tons in the previous month and down 24.4% from 9.488 million tons in the same period of the previous year. 8.389 million tons of soybeans were imported into China in the first 11 months of 2021/2022 (October 2021 to August 2022), down 9.02 million tons, compared with the same period of the previous year. The decline was 9.7%. This year, domestic imports of soybean crushing long-term losses, domestic protein meal and oil demand decline, oil mills are not very active in procurement, some companies to reduce commercial stocks to meet crushing demand, reducing soybean imports; policy imports of soybeans continue to put increased market supply, but also a certain degree of inhibition of soybean imports.

China Feed Industry Association data show that the total national feed production in July 24.58 million tons, up 5.4%, down 6.8% year-on-year. Among them, 9.83 million tons of pig feed production, up 4 percent, down 11.1 percent year-on-year. 1 to July the country's total industrial feed output of 161.11 million tons, down 4.7 percent year-on-year. Among them, pig, egg and poultry, meat and poultry feed production of 70.14 million tons, 17.92 million tons, 485.77 million tons, down 7.4%, 4.7%, 7.1% year-on-year, respectively.

Statistics show that the stock of breeding sows at the end of July was 42.981 million, the third consecutive month-on-month increase, equivalent to 104.8% of the normal holding. The breeding sow stock continues to grow, and the pig stock is expected to continue to grow in the later stage. Recent national hog prices remain strong, hog breeding profits are good, farmers are highly motivated to replenish their pens, feed breeding enterprises in the formula to increase the proportion of soybean meal added to enhance the will, will promote the growth of soybean meal demand.

Due to the poor demand for protein meal since 2021/2022 year, the demand for soybean meal declined. China's protein meal feeding consumption is expected to be 92.51 million tons in 2021/2022, down 4.8% year-on-year. Among them, the consumption of soybean meal 70.65 million tons, down 6.2% year-on-year. It is expected that 2022/2023 protein meal feeding consumption of 95.24 million tons, an increase of 2.9%. Among them, the consumption of soybean meal 73.6 million tons, an increase of 4.2% year-on-year.

According to the ship monitoring, China is expected to import about 7 million tons of soybeans in September, down from 16.36 million tons in the same period of the previous year, the lowest level for the same period in the past five years. It is expected that China will import 91 million tons of soybeans in 2021/2022 (October to September of the following year), down from 99.79 million tons in the previous year, a decrease of 8.8%. Pig farming has entered the upward cycle, with rising prices, improved farming profits, capacity expansion and an increase in the proportion of soybean meal added, driving a rebound in soybean consumption demand, and China's soybean imports are expected to rebound to 95 million tons in 2022/2023.