Brazil Soybean Crush To Hit Record 48 Million Tons in 2022

Brazil's soybean crush is expected to reach a record 48 million tonnes in 2022 and export revenues are set to reach a record high, with high prices helping export revenues grow despite a decline in soybean production, according to a report released by the Brazilian Vegetable Oil Industry Association (ABIOVE).

Soybean oil exports expected to hit a 14-year high in 2022 as Indian demand grows

Brazilian soybean oil exports in 2022 are estimated at 1.8 million tonnes, 100,000 tonnes more than forecast in April and also higher than the 1.65 million tonnes in 2021, the highest level since 2008, as Indian demand grows additionally.

With the upward revision of export expectations, ABIOVE reduced soybean oil ending stocks by 100,000 tonnes to 522,000 tonnes, as production is expected to remain at 9.7 million tonnes and domestic consumption at 7.9 million tonnes.

ABIOVE said the upward revision of exports was due to increased international demand due to the impact of the conflict in Ukraine on sunflower oil, Indonesia's ban on palm oil exports and higher demand for edible oil from India. Ukraine is a major producer of sunflower oil and India has turned to Brazil to import more soybean oil amid disruptions to shipments from Eastern Europe.

ABIOVE said that if forecasts are confirmed, soybean oil exports in 2022 will be the largest since the 2.3 million tonnes exported in 2008. The all-time high for Brazilian soybean oil exports was 2.7 million tonnes in 2005, but since then Brazil has started to reduce soybean oil exports and use more of its production for domestic biodiesel production. This year the Brazilian government lowered the mandatory blending ratio for biodiesel so that more soybean oil could be used in the food industry.

Brazilian soybean and manufactured product export revenues to reach a record $58 billion in 2022

While maintaining its forecast for Brazilian soybean and soybean meal exports, ABIOVE has increased its forecast for Brazilian soybean and manufactured product export revenues to a new record of US$57.95 billion in 2022 due to higher prices. This compares to last month's forecast of US$55.9 billion, compared to last year's total of US$48 billion.

Brazil's soybean crush forecast to be a record 48 million tonnes in 2022

ABIOVE kept its 2022 soybean processing forecast for Brazil at a record 48 million tonnes, as soybean meal and soybean oil production in the first quarter of this year was faster than in the same period a year earlier.

In the first quarter of this year, Brazil processed 9.3 million tonnes of soybeans, up 12.1% year-on-year.

The 2022 soybean meal export forecast for Brazil was maintained at a record 18.3 million tonnes, while domestic consumption is forecast at 18.1 million tonnes, also unchanged from April but lower than the 19.2 million tonnes exported in 2021.

Soybean production revised slightly higher

ABIOVE also raised Brazil's soybean production in 2022 by a modest 100,000 tonnes to 125.4 million tonnes, but still 9.7% below the record high of 138.86 million tonnes in 2021. 

 

Brazilian soybean exports in 2022 are forecast at 77.2 million tonnes, unchanged from earlier forecasts and down from the 2021 high of 86.1 million tonnes. Soybean ending stocks are estimated at 2.58 million tonnes, up from the April forecast of 2.43 million tonnes.