Agriculture Canada Raises Forecast For 2022/23 Canola Exports

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) released its major crop outlook report for August, showing that the forecast for Canadian canola exports in 2022/23 was raised to 9.2 million tons, 200,000 tons higher than the previous month's forecast and 2021/22 The annual volume of 5.15 million tons jumped 78.6%.

The rapeseed production forecast was unchanged this month at 18.4 million tonnes, up 46.1% from 12.595 million tonnes in 2021/22.

The report said a sharp increase in rapeseed yields will offset the decline in planted area. The rapeseed yield is expected to be 2.14 t/ha, up 52.9% from the previous year's 1.4 t/ha, which was affected by bad weather.

The sown area of rapeseed is expected to be 8.667 million hectares, which is the same as the previous month's forecast, a decrease of 4.7% from the previous year's 9.097 million hectares; the harvested area is expected to be 8.599 million hectares, a decrease of 4.5% from the previous year's 9.002 million hectares.

The domestic consumption in 2022/23 is 9.65 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons from the previous month, and an increase of 13.3% from the lowered consumption of 8.517 million tons in 2021/22 (down 400,000 tons from the previous month).

The ending inventory in 2022/23 is expected to be 450,000 tons, which is the same as last month's forecast, and is 43.8% lower than the 800,000 tons of stocks raised in 2021/22 (400,000 tons expected last month).

Rapeseed ending stocks for 2021/22 are raised because domestic use is lowered 0.4 million tons to 8.517 million tons.

he rapeseed stocks-to-use ratio in 2022/23 is 4.7%, compared to 9.4% in 2021/22.