AUTHORITATIVE INTERPRETATION: GLOBAL MARKET DEVELOPMENT TREND OF CHEMICAL FERTILIZER, Pesticide And Agricultural Machinery

Fertilizers, pesticides and agricultural machinery are very important Means of production in agricultural production and have made a significant contribution to providing an effective and safe food supply for the world's population. Recently, the Overseas Agricultural Research Center of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences released a think tank report, "overseas agricultural products market research (agricultural means of production) , " focusing on a global perspective, the main supply and demand situation, trade situation and industry development situation of chemical fertilizer, pesticide and agricultural machinery are analyzed, which can provide important reference for modern agricultural development and agricultural enterprises going abroad.

FERTILIZER: The supply of fertilizer in the world is more than the demand trend is obvious, the price fluctuation of the global demand decline

The supply and demand of fertilizer in 2019 were about 232.31 million tons and 190.50 million tons, up 1.2 percent and 0.90 percent, respectively, from a year earlier, according to the thinktank. In recent 5 years, the supply of chemical fertilizer is increasing faster than the demand of chemical fertilizer, and the trend of supply exceeding demand is more and more obvious.

The pattern of global fertilizer trade has remained relatively stable. Asia is the core region for the production and consumption of nitrogen fertilizer, Asia and the Americas are the main battlefields for the production and consumption of phosphate fertilizer, and Europe and the Americas are the main production areas for potash fertilizer, asia and the Americas are major consumers of potash. China's consumption of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium fertilizers is in first place.

Demand for fertilizer is expected to fall by 2.9 percent in 2020 from 2019 due to the new crown pneumonia outbreak, according to the World Bank and the 2021, among other sources, predicting a rebound in demand, to 189 million tonnes, of which an increase of 2.2 million tonnes is expected for nitrogen and about 1.2 million tonnes and 1 million tonnes for phosphorus and potash.

By 2024, global fertilizer demand is expected to grow at an annual rate of 0.7 percent to 197.1 million tons. Demand for nitrogen is expected to recover faster than for phosphate and potash. Of course, this depends on whether the epidemic of NCP can be effectively brought under control.

Potash and urea prices fell as global demand for fertiliser fell. Liu Limin, phd, Institute of Agricultural Information and Economics, Beijing Academy of Agricultural and Forestry Sciences, said, the factors influencing the price change of chemical fertilizer in the near future are mainly reflected in the changes of supply and demand, the upstream raw material cost, the price of agricultural products, the influence of climate and the cost of artificial transportation, etc. , because the demand power insufficiency, affects the price to fall the fluctuation.

PESTICIDE: cost and price are both reduced, enterprises cross-border M & A to intensify the competition

Global pesticide sales were $65.9 billion in 2019, up 0.8 percent year on year, with global crop pesticide market sales of $57.79 billion in 2019, up 0.4 percent year on year, and non-crop pesticide sales of $7.8 billion, according to the thinktank, year over year increase of 3.5% .

Affected by the low operation of the national oil price, the low price of major chemicals has reduced the production cost of pesticides. However, due to the weakening of demand in the downstream market, pesticide producers have to lower their prices to compete for sales, the cost and price of pesticide products have both dropped.

China's pesticide production capacity and output have been in the forefront of the world, product quality has been steadily improved, and the variety has been steadily increased, and a relatively complete industrial system has been formed, including the research and development, production and sale of raw drugs, pesticide industry chain is the most complete country.

In recent years, the output of chemical pesticides in China has decreased to 2.253.9 million tons in 2019, but the quality and variety of pesticide products have been steadily improved. China's pesticide production enterprises are mainly located in Jiangsu, Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Zhejiang and other provinces, which account for more than 60% of the country's pesticide industrial output value, pesticide sales revenue of more than 10 billion yuan of 28 pesticide enterprises.

The opening of pesticide market speeds up the internationalization process of domestic pesticide enterprises. Domestic enterprises speed up the development of foreign markets, establish joint ventures in foreign countries or directly acquire foreign well-known companies, making China gradually become the world's main production base of pesticide raw materials and preparations. The emergence of the Chinese Pesticide Corps has made China a pesticide powerhouse alongside Germany and the United States.

The report analyzes the Global Pesticide Market, M & A is still the strategic choice and main melody of the future development of pesticide enterprises. In the post-patent era, the competition of agrochemical enterprises is more intense. Low Toxicity, environmental protection and sustainable development are still the developing direction of pesticide industry. China's pesticide industry will also intensify integration, and continue to develop to intensive, large-scale direction.

Agricultural Machinery: The sales of various agricultural machinery products have declined, and the market monopoly of multinational enterprises has further increased

Think tank report found that the global agricultural machinery market in 2019 again entered the recession, as the world's three major markets for agricultural machinery sales in North America, Europe and Asia basically stable or declining trend;

The World Trade Pattern of agricultural machinery products is basically stable, characterized by the high export concentration of the main agricultural machinery products, the developed countries such as Germany and America as the key export countries, the low import concentration and the scattered distribution of the importing countries

Developed countries or regions focus on industry support policies to promote the development of precision agriculture, developing countries focus on accelerating the development of Mechanised agriculture, part of the emerging countries to accelerate the pace of industrial development;

Well-known multinational enterprises have further accelerated the pace of expansion in the global market. Despite the different performance of their business situations, the world's top five well-known multinational enterprises of agricultural machinery are all oriented to the agricultural machinery markets of North America, South America, Europe and Asia, with new strategies to expand overseas markets, some companies have begun to accelerate the expansion of Africa as a huge potential market.

Zhang Meng, associate research fellow at the Mechanised agriculture, said the global agricultural machinery market is expected to be depressed in the short term. Whether the global market can recover again depends on the situation of prevention and control of the epidemic of NCP and the release of the development potential of the emerging markets represented by the vast number of developing countries.

The world famous agricultural machinery multinational enterprise will continue to face the potential region and further expand the overseas agricultural machinery market, the possible form is mainly to acquire the well-known agricultural machinery enterprise or to purchase the equity.